Analysis of Bolsonaro’s Likelihood for Re-Election in 2022: Polls, Key Candidates, and Electoral Strategy

With a country as politically diverse as Brazil, predicting the outcome of its tumultuous elections can be akin to forecasting the weather. In 2022, the re-election of Jair Bolsonaro, the incumbent president, will hinge on several key factors, including recent polls, the performance of other major candidates, and broader political trends. This article provides an in-depth analysis, based on current data and expert opinions, to help understand the likelihood of Bolsonaro securing victory in the upcoming Brazilian presidential race.

Polling Indicators and Current Prevalence

According to the latest polling data available, Bolsonaro's chances for re-election appear to be mixed but not particularly promising. Recent surveys suggest that former president Lula da Silva holds a considerable advantage, with double the number of potential voters compared to Bolsonaro (46% vs. 23%).

Bolsonaro has also faced significant challenges in reducing his rejection rates, which stand at 64%, a figure that is distressingly high. In comparison, Sergio Moro, a former judge and the current Minister under Bolsonaro, has a slightly lower rejection rate at 61%. Lula, on the other hand, faces only 43% rejection among potential voters. Controversially, Bolsonaro's political party status has become a non-issue, as he has been partyless for roughly two years and only joined the current party due to the necessity of running under one.

The Impact of Sergio Moro and Economic Policy

The political landscape in Brazil is further complicated by the emergence of Sergio Moro, a former judge who has garnered significant support from the right-wing sector. His growing popularity raises questions about the future of Bolsonaro’s own campaign. Moro’s strong economic proposals, which are dwindling in number, could pose a significant challenge to Bolsonaro’s otherwise robust economic program.

To further add complexity, several prominent politicians are either unpopular or lack clarity in their economic platforms, leaving room for Bolsonaro’s minimally popular yet stable legislative record to become a key factor in the election. For instance, Doria, a political figure from a despised party, and other candidates are seen as either jokes or products of a failing political system that seeks to replace the Workers’ Party (PT).

Reasons Behind Bolsonaro’s High Re-Election Likelihood

Despite his current unpopularity, Bolsonaro still leads as the favorite to win the 2022 election, largely due to the dynamics of Brazilian politics. Here are several key reasons why:

Economic Policy and Public Concessions

1. **Leadership of the Right-Wing Camp**: Bolsonaro holds a natural leadership position within the right-wing coalition, a powerful force in Brazil’s political landscape. This includes agrarians, military, Catholics, policemen, evangelicals, and a large segment of the lower-middle class outside major urban centers.

2. **Frustration with the Left-Wing Workers’ Party (PT)**: The Workers’ Party is highly unpopular across Brazil, except in some northern regions and some peri-urban zones. Its last elected candidate, Dilma Rousseff, resigned amidst economic chaos, and it currently lacks a clear alternative leadership.

Political Prosecutor Sergio Moro

3. **Opposition Leader Sergio Moro**: Moro, a former prosecutor who jailed Lula, has since distanced himself from the government and faced backlash from both left and right. His unclear ideological profile and inability to connect with the poorest electorate limit his potential as a serious candidate.

Supporters of Bolsonaro's Policies

4. **Positive Legislative Concessions**: Bolsonaro can claim several legislative accomplishments, such as pension reform, privatization of state-owned enterprises, and stabilizing crime rates. While economic growth under Bolsonaro was modest, unemployment reduction in 2019 was a tangible achievement that resonates with the electorate.

5. **Bolsonaro’s Support Base**: Bolsonaro has a solid base of support that is likely to maintain its allegiance due to the fear of a left-wing government.

While it is clear that Bolsonaro's path to re-election is not straightforward, his combination of policy achievements, public support, and opposition weaknesses make him a prime contender for the Brazilian presidency in 2022. However, the road ahead could be fraught with challenges, and only time will tell how these factors will play out in the final campaign leading to the election.