How Often Do Airlines Fly with Empty Seats: The Reality

During the height of the pandemic, airlines often had flights with numerous empty seats. Now, post-pandemic, most flights are at full capacity. However, there are still instances where flights might have a few empty seats, and this article will explore the reasons behind this and the practice of overbooking.

Why Overbook?

Airlines overbook flights as a strategic move to minimize the number of empty seats. The primary objective is to account for passengers who don't show up for their flights (no-shows) and use this reserve to ensure a higher overall load factor. No-shows are common because passengers may change their travel plans at the last minute or simply fail to show up.

Reasons for Empty Seats

There are several reasons why planes might fly with empty seats:

No one has bought a ticket for that flight. The plane has to be at a specific different airport for its next scheduled flight. The plane needs maintenance and has to be taken to the shop for repairs.

While these are valid reasons, airlines prefer not to fly with empty seats as it represents a loss for the carrier. Thus, they employ overbooking as a means to optimize their flights and revenue.

The Practice of Overbooking

Virtual overbooking is virtually universal across the airline industry. The reasons for this practice are multi-faceted, but the primary one is to capitalize on the high frequency of no-shows. By overbooking, airlines can fill the flight and still allow for potential no-shows, thereby maximizing their revenue.

Who Gets to Fly?

Contrary to popular belief, the process of who gets to fly during overbooking is not "first come, first served." It often depends on who they know, or more accurately, who has a priority status. This can include customers with elite status, passengers on the flight reward programs, and those who willingly give up their seats.

Current Trends in Flight Capacity

Current data suggests that flight loads are quite high. For example:

A major travel agent with experience in the New York City area notes that planes are carrying a load factor of around 80% recently, which is down a few percentage points from the high of 83% in the past. United Airlines reported a load factor of around 80% for the first three months of 2023.

This trend is expected to increase as summer approaches, with flights often reaching 90% full or even higher. This high load factor means that most flights are at capacity, leaving very few instances of empty seats.

Examples of Flights with Few Passengers

While planes are generally flying full, there are occasional exceptions. I have observed flights with as few as 50 passengers out of a possible 160 seats. These few empty seats are typically seen on less popular routes or during off-peak times. However, even in these instances, the airline has a legitimate reason for not being fully booked.

Modern Reservation Systems and Pricing Strategies

The modern reservation system is a marvel of technology designed to maximize revenue. Airlines adjust seat pricing on a minute-by-minute basis, offering the last seat at the last possible moment and selling each seat for the maximum price. This dynamic pricing strategy means that the predictions of a past travel agent, based on fixed pricing, are largely invalid today.

The combination of overbooking and dynamic pricing ensures that airlines can fill their flights and maximize their revenue, even as travel patterns and market conditions change.