How Soon Will Autonomous Trucks Replace Human Drivers?

Advancements in technology have brought us to a pivotal point where the question begs: How soon will autonomous trucks replace human drivers on our roads?

Technological Advancements in Autonomous Trucks

Technologically, we are well-positioned to start seeing autonomous trucks on public roads within a few years. Companies like Freightliner have already taken steps in this direction. In 2015, freightliner certified an autonomous truck with level-3 autonomy on US public highways in Nevada. This level of autonomy means that the hands and feet can be off the controls in some circumstances. This is a significant step towards fully autonomous driving.

The Legal Challenges

While the technology is advancing quickly, the legal challenges remain substantial. Currently, autonomous trucks are being tested under special dispensation rules. However, the transition to becoming a common sight on our roads could take up to a decade or more. The inherent risks associated with autonomous trucks are numerous, and the legal implications of accidents involving these vehicles are a critical aspect that needs to be addressed.

Potential Dangers and Challenges

I hope never to witness the situation where an autonomous truck faces sudden, unforeseen hazards on the road. For instance, imagine a driverless truck blowing a front tire. Or, a deer or a large animal running out in front of it. Alternatively, consider a human-driven car deciding to cut it off at an exit or suddenly pulling out in front of it, forcing the autonomous truck to slam on its brakes without warning. Passing the truck on the right side shoulder and then abruptly pulling across in front of it is another potential hazard.

Another critical scenario involves multiple driverless trucks. Imagine one autonomous truck blowing a tire beside another, especially if it's hauling hazardous materials. The roads could also be covered with black ice, snow, or deep water due to sudden weather changes, posing significant safety risks. Additionally, the issue of vandalism might arise - consider the scenario where someone deliberately targets a driverless truck, believing it lacks a driver to take responsibility.

Federal and State Regulations

Currently, the legal landscape is heavily regulated, and the liability for accidents involving autonomous trucks remains a contentious issue. There are ongoing debates about who should bear the responsibility in the event of an accident: the manufacturer, the owner, or the system's designer. These legal challenges must be overcome before autonomous trucks can be widely accepted on public roads.

Future of Autonomous Trucks

Despite the challenges, the future of autonomous trucks seems promising. Freightliner's achievements in 2015 indicate that the technology is already mature and advanced. The simplicity and efficiency of the electric Volvo prototype, with no heat, AC, visibility/ingress/egress studies, seats, sleeper cabs, doors, windows, or mirrors, highlight how the future of truck design may evolve.

As a concerned truck engineer, the thought of anyone being able to build an electric Volvo in their garage is both exciting and concerning. This simplicity in design could revolutionize the trucking industry, but it also poses questions for the future of companies like Freightliner and Volvo.

It is evident that most long-haul over-the-road (OTR) transport will likely be done autonomously in the near future. This type of controlled and predictable driving is perfectly suited for autonomous vehicles, and the technology has already been available since 2015. However, the driving 'last mile' is still a domain where human drivers will reign for the foreseeable future. The tractor will be swapped with a human-driven truck at the depot when the load needs to go into a city.

Conclusion

The transition to autonomous trucks is a multifaceted challenge that requires technological, legal, and ethical considerations. While we may see significant advancements within a few years, the complete replacement of human drivers will take longer due to the intricate nature of the legal and safety implications.