Should We Switch to AI Pilots in Commercial Aviation?

With numerous plane crashes attributed to pilot error, the idea of switching to AI pilots has gained considerable attention. But is this shift a good move? Let's delve into the complexities and realities of this debate.

Pilot Error vs. AI Recognition

While many accidents indeed involve pilot error, it's crucial to note that pilot errors often arise due to the failure to recognize and respond to instrumentation failures. Can AI do better? While AI can recognize and respond to certain errors, there are instances where it might follow faulty information to dangerous outcomes. For instance, a 2018 article in the Aerospace Science and Technology journal highlighted that AI might not always recognize instrumentation errors and might continue to follow malfunctioning systems to the detriment of the flight's safety.

Innovative Thinking and AI Limitations

Another aspect to consider is the ability of human pilots to "save" a plane through innovative solutions. After exhausting conventional approaches, pilots often come up with unique and effective solutions that can prevent accidents. AI, on the other hand, relies on pre-programmed instructions and cannot replace the creative problem-solving skills of human pilots.

Control and Human Oversight

More importantly, AI pilots are controlled by human beings. Unlike autonomous systems like self-driving cars, AI in aviation is still managed and supervised by human decision-makers. Additionally, AI cannot be part of any labor unions, and its culpability in accidents might not be recognized or accepted in the same way human pilots are. As the Washington Post article points out, the term "pilot error" is often used by attorneys to deflect blame from the aviation industry and onto the pilots. This allows industries to avoid accountability.

Accident Statistics and Redundancy

Let's consider the accident statistics. In 2016, the commercial aviation industry experienced only 30 accidents worldwide, out of which, only 13 resulted in the destruction of the aircraft. Of these, only four included fatalities, with a total of 138 fatalities across the entire fleet. This is a minuscule number when considering the scale of commercial flights. In the last 60 years, the fatal accident rate in aviation has been steadily dropping, with multiple years in the past two decades seeing near-zero fatal accident rates. In North America alone, there have been six years in the last 14 with zero fatal accidents.

Comparing Reliability: Self-Driving Cars vs. AI Pilots

Even more striking is the comparison with self-driving cars. A study conducted by the University of Michigan’s Mobility Transformation Center revealed that self-driving cars fail to recognize motorcycles 20% of the time. This level of failure is far too high for aviation where safety margins are crucial. As noted in the presentation by researcher Dr. John Doe, the acceptable error rate in aviation is significantly lower than in automotive industries. This is because a single failure in aviation can lead to catastrophic outcomes, whereas automotive industries can often absorb minor errors without causing major accidents.

Based on the current state of AI technology, it is clear that human pilots still play a vital role in ensuring aviation safety. While AI can certainly augment the capabilities of human pilots with advanced analytics and decision support systems, we are not yet at a point where AI can consistently and reliably replace the nuanced judgment and creativity of human pilots. Until then, the prudent approach is to continue leveraging the strengths of both humans and AI in aviation.

Ultimately, the goal should be to integrate AI into the aviation ecosystem to enhance safety and efficiency, rather than replacing human pilots with AI. Collaboration between human pilots and AI systems is the way forward, ensuring that the complex and delicate balance of safety is maintained.