The Potential Russian Response to a US Attack on Syria: A Strategic Analysis

Recent tensions in the Middle East have led to a speculative discussion about Russia's likely response to a potential US attack on Syria. Historically, Russian reaction has been consistent with a display of strength and a strategic defense, a pattern that may be expected to repeat in the future.

Historical Context and Russian Reactions

When reflecting on potential Russian responses, it is instructive to revisit historical events. For instance, the Germans in 1939 responded to an attack on their radio station by escalating their aggression. Similarly, in response to past US actions in Syria, Putin has typically drawn another line in the sand. In simpler terms, the Russian leadership would be “shitting their pants” if such an attack were to happen.

This reaction is not unique to the Russian response to Western military actions. When equipped with intelligence-driven wit and a well-thought-out strategy, Russia has consistently demonstrated the ability to counter US military moves with strategic deterrence and defense. This is seen in the past when Russia's military coordinated to prevent overlap with US activities in Syria, ensuring that their actions did not jeopardize their strategic objectives.

Current Russian Military Tact and Strategy

Currently, Russia's response to any US attack on Syria is more likely to be “holding a lot of funerals”. This means that, rather than direct military confrontation, Russia will focus on testing and validating the effectiveness of their aging yet reliable defense systems against the most advanced US weaponry. SAM-200s are being tested against US 'smart weapons' to assess their capabilities and limitations.

Russia’s war strategy involves a cautious approach. They are not interested in demonstrating their latest armaments to NATO, as this would reveal critical vulnerabilities. Russia believes that such a display of military capabilities would only occur when absolutely necessary. In 1963, a MiG-21 was flown by a defector from Iraq to Israel, highlighting the potential for espionage and intelligence sharing. Today, Russia is not foolish enough to risk the same.

Military Leadership and Strategy

Under the leadership of Putin, Russian military strategy is marked by a clear understanding of the need for strategic thought and careful planning. Putin and his military leaders are not into 'bravado' or reckless military action. They have a clear strategic vision that prefers to wait for the right moment to act, rather than engage in premature confrontations.

If tensions escalate, Russia and Putin will take the necessary steps, but not according to NATO's timeline. The ongoing war of words, sanctions, and duties highlights the growing tension between the West and the rest of the world. This tension stems from the desire of countries outside the 'block' to live in peace, free from Western intervention and imperialism.

The Future of the Conflict

The current conflict in Syria is becoming increasingly complex, with various actors vying for control. The ongoing success of the Syrian government against rebels, radicals, and terrorists, along with the control exerted by Turkey in the north, has altered the dynamics of the conflict.

Given these factors, it seems increasingly likely that US involvement in Syria is waning. Trump's America is gradually shutting down Obama's 'Syrian project,' and the cost and likelihood of a US victory in Syria are becoming increasingly difficult. Additionally, the Kurds, who were initially supportive of the US mission, are no longer a focal point of Trump's strategy. Instead, Iran has become a key player, making it less likely for the US to push for a United Kurdistan.

As a result, it is probable that Russia and Syria will not react in a way that escalates the conflict. The sole notable exception might be the provision of S-300 missile systems to Syria, to further reinforce their defenses.

The current situation in Syria and its regional implications highlight the importance of strategic patience and careful planning. The world watches with interest to see how these complex dynamics will unfold in the coming months and years.