UK Fuel Supply Crisis: Estimating Restocking Timeline

Earlier today, a radio commentator reported that two-thirds of the UK's filling stations had run dry, with many expecting the situation to worsen. According to ITV News, between Sunday and Monday, the overall daily capacity level of the tanks at filling stations saw a significant rise, increasing from a very low average of 10% to 16%. While the situation seems to be moving in the right direction, the introduction of buffer fuel filled by drivers anxious to avoid potential shortages may slow down the restocking process.

There has been much discussion about the lack of a real fuel shortage, with concerns centered around the shortage of lorry drivers affecting tanker deliveries. Additionally, the population's panic buying and hoarding of essential items, reminiscent of the toilet paper shortage from the previous year, may have further exacerbated the situation. However, these issues should begin to normalize within a few days as people adjust their behavior.

An Estimation of Restocking Timeframe

To give a clearer understanding of how long it will take to restock the filling stations, let's consider the average UK petrol car. Assuming that the average car is refilled every two weeks with 40 liters of petrol, and considering there are around 20 million such cars in the UK, approximately 1.5 million refills occur each day, equating to about 60 million liters of petrol distributed daily.

As the fuel supply problem becomes apparent, people start to build buffers in their fuel tanks, ensuring they have enough petrol for a couple of days. This shift means that on average, tanks that previously held 35 liters now hold 37.5 liters, with a variation from 20 to 55 liters. This buffer demand adds 50 million liters of extra fuel into the system daily on top of the regular 60 million liters.

Assuming a linear demand increase over a week, it would take at least one week to meet the additional demand before returning to the normal distribution levels. If people continue to build larger buffers, the restocking time could extend to two weeks or more.

While this estimation is based on a simplified model and not on insider knowledge of the fuel industry, it provides a reasonable baseline for understanding the current and future challenges.

In conclusion, while the situation is improving, it will likely take several weeks to fully restock UK filling stations, especially as people adapt to the current fuel buffer demand patterns.

Key Takeaways

UK filling stations' fuel tanks saw a rise in capacity due to panic buying and hoarding. There is no real fuel shortage; however, the lorry driver shortage is affecting tanker delivery schedules. Poor demand estimation and buffer building in fuel tanks could extend restocking times.

With continued cooperation and adjustment in behavior, it is expected that the situation will normalize in the coming weeks.