Why Isn't Singapore Airlines Operating a Direct Flight to San Francisco?

The question often lingers: why has Singapore Airlines (SQ) chosen not to offer a direct flight from San Francisco to Singapore?

The Economy Speaks: Fuel Costs

The key to understanding this complex decision lies in one word: economics. A direct flight from San Francisco to Singapore would span approximately 17-18 hours. At present, fuel prices are not sustainable for a direct flight to be profitable. The fact is, for every mile flown, the aircraft consumes more fuel, and at a rate that makes the entire journey non-reimbursable without substantial subsidies or premium fares.

Traveling via intermediary hubs, such as Hong Kong or Seoul, allows SQ to manage costs more effectively. These hubs provide a strategic advantage by breaking up the long journey, which not only eases the financial burden but also facilitates additional traffic and diversifies passenger demand. Even though the Bay Area might pose a challenge in terms of daily direct flights to Singapore, it is significantly easier to operate a consistent service to Hong Kong, which is a major travel hub with a large customer base.

The Historical Context: United Airlines' New Flight

The predictive and competitive landscape of air travel was further clarified in February 2016 when United Airlines (UA) announced the launch of a non-stop route from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) to Singapore. Using the Boeing 787-9, the route will be operated as flight UA1 to Singapore and UA2 for the return journey. This move highlights the industry's continued focus on achieving the elusive direct long-haul flight.

Historically, the viability of a long-haul flight primarily hinges on the economics of fuel consumption. Flights spanning 16-17 hours are technically feasible but commercially challenging due to the high fuel requirements. The aircraft essentially becomes a fuel tanker, making it non-economical without the support of premium pricing or air traffic hubs.

Further Insights: A Business Class-Only Flight

The LAX-SIN route, operated by SQ, provides a fascinating example of a business class-only flight on a 777-300ER. This strategy helps in offsetting the inherently higher energy consumption of a long-haul journey. However, there are currently no such flights departing from SFO, indicating that the market for such services is not yet established.

Put another way, the primary barrier to a direct flight from San Francisco to Singapore is the financial imperative of minimizing fuel costs while maximizing profitability. Intermediary hubs, such as Hong Kong or Seoul, provide the necessary economic balance, making them more viable options.

In conclusion, the decision by Singapore Airlines to operate via intermediary hubs rather than a direct flight to San Francisco can be attributed to the fundamental challenge of balancing fuel costs and commercial viability. As air travel technology advances and fuel efficiency improves, we may see changes in this landscape. However, for now, the current economic model remains steadfast.