Why Russia Hasn't Started Heavy Bombing in Ukraine Yet

The question of why Russia hasn't initiated heavy bombing in Ukraine remains a topic of significant interest and debate. Several factors, including sanctions, financial constraints, and strategic considerations, contribute to Russia's hesitation. In this article, we will explore these factors and provide a detailed analysis.

Financial Constraints and Sanctions

One of the primary reasons Russia hasn't started heavy bombing is the severe financial constraints and the impact of sanctions. Russia's military machines, including air forces, are among the most expensive in the world. Each plane, especially strategic bombers, is a financial drain on the budget.

According to a report by CNN, Russia is on the brink of facing a severe financial crisis, with GDP shrinkage and a collapsing currency leading to potential bankruptcy. Given this situation, Russia's leaders, particularly Vladimir Putin, cannot afford to lose their air force. The Russian government has already lost billions of rubles worth of technological assets to simple, shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles, which significantly depletes their budget. As they have no replacement planes available, they are unable to sustain heavy bombing campaigns.

The Ineffectiveness of Expensive Assets

The Russian air force faces significant challenges in maintaining air superiority. They struggle to conduct direct attacks on ground targets without being shot down, leading to the use of expensive cruise missiles instead. These missiles, such as the Kh-101 and Kh-55, are highly effective but extremely costly.

According to the BBC, Russia's air force has faced difficulties not only from anti-aircraft missiles but also from the strategic attacks on rear air bases. This has forced them to displace their best equipment even further from the conflict zone. The air superiority achieved by Ukraine's forces has made it virtually impossible for Russian bombers to operate effectively.

The Cost of Strategic Bombers

A strategic bombing campaign requires a significant number of planes in formation to accurately carpet bomb a target area. However, the Russian air force is limited in both numbers and capabilities. The strategic bomber, the Tu-160, is a high-speed, supersonic plane known for its long-range capabilities. However, it would face significant risks in a modern air defense environment in Ukraine.

According to Global Research, it would cost a large number of these planes to make it back to Russia after a bombing mission. The estimated cost of a single Tu-160 is over $250 million, and Russia only has about 15 of these planes in service. Given the operational capacities of the Russian air force, a strategy previously reliant on thousands of bombers is no longer viable.

Modern Air Defense Systems and Precision Bombing

A strategy like carpet bombing, historically effective in the 20th century, is less viable today due to the constant improvement in modern air defenses. With air defense systems now more capable, the risk of losing a significant number of planes in a single mission makes traditional bombing campaigns unfeasible.

However, modern precision bombing has shifted the balance. With the availability of precision-guided weapons, hitting critical targets can be achieved with fewer planes and fewer bombs. Instead of dropping thousands of explosives to hit a general area, one precision bomb can achieve the same effect. This makes strategic bombers more potent but also more expensive.

Conclusion

The reasons why Russia hasn't started heavy bombing in Ukraine go beyond simple lack of resources. The modern air defense environment in Ukraine, combined with significant financial constraints and the price of maintaining their air force, have made heavy bombing an unsustainable strategy for Russia.