Will Another Boeing 737 MAX Crash Undo Its FAA Approval?

Aviation always carries the risk of crashes, but the recent history of the Boeing 737 MAX has heightened public and regulatory concerns. Will another crash, even if it's for the same reason as before, lead to a reconsideration of the FAA approval? This article delves into the complexities, potential consequences, and implications of another crash for the MAX series.

Past Incidents and Lessons Learned

The Boeing 737 MAX series faced severe challenges in its early years. Two major crashes, involving Ethiopian Airlines flight 302 and Lion Air flight 610, raised concerns about the aircraft's safety and the decisions made by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). These incidents highlighted the importance of thorough investigations and potential regulatory oversight.

Before the FAA approved the MAX, it had previously certified another version of the 737 that had its own crashing problems. In 1979, the 737-200 crash in Renton, Washington, resulted in multiple fatalities, yet the FAA did not ground the aircraft. Instead, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) conducted a deep investigation which led to stricter regulations and safety measures for the 737-200.

The Max8 and Its Challenges

The Max8 faced a similar series of events, with two major crashes due to issues with the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System). Unlike other nations, the FAA initially decided not to ground the Max8, even as other countries did so. This decision was met with significant pushback, and the decision-making process revealed a level of national pride and a strong belief in the FAA's capabilities despite public and industry criticisms.

The foreign nations involved in the Max8 investigations and subsequent actions didn't rely on the NTSB or FAA for primary investigation and problem-solving. Instead, they pursued their own investigations, leading to divergent outcomes and solutions. This raised questions about the global standing and effectiveness of the FAA and NTSB.

The Global Impact and Outlook

When the Max8 faced another crash for the same reason, the immediate response was for a thorough investigation. It is highly likely that all existing MAX aircraft will be grounded while investigations are conducted to ensure safety. If the problem is software-related, a software update may suffice. However, if hardware modifications are required, Boeing engineers will need to be dispatched to modify the aircraft, or they may need to be ferried under permit to undergo modifications.

To date, 387 MAX aircraft have been delivered, with 266 of those delivered to customers outside the USA. Some of the US sales are to leasing companies, which could mean that some of these aircraft are located outside the USA.

In terms of the type certificate/airworthiness certificate, it is almost unthinkable that the FAA would order the complete scrapping of all delivered aircraft or major modifications that could be more expensive than creating a new design. The logistical and financial implications of such an action would be significant.

Conclusion

The history of the Boeing 737 MAX has been characterized by challenges and controversies. Another crash, especially if it's for the same reason, would likely trigger a rigorous evaluation and potential groundings. However, it is improbable that all aircraft would be scrapped or require major modifications. The decisions made in such situations would depend on the findings of the investigations and the balance between safety and economic reality.