Will Brazil Face a New Insurrection if Bolsonaro Loses: Lessons from the US Experience

Recently received some alarming news from a friend who works in the Brazilian consulate in Australia, about a potential comparison to the insurrection that occurred in Washington D.C. if Jair Bolsonaro loses the 2022 presidential election. It is indeed a concerning prospect, with echoes of the Trump era's influence reverberating across the globe. Trumpism, with its promotion of Gobrellian deception, has left a deep and undesirable mark. This is not merely a domestic issue for Brazil; it poses significant threats to the broader global order and the health of democratic institutions.

The Impact of Trumpism and its Global Influence

One cannot overlook the significant role that individuals like Donald Trump played in promoting a political climate rife with conspiracy theories and authoritarian tendencies. The normalization of such behavior is deeply troubling, and its effects have been seen in various parts of the world, including Brazil. Trumpism has popularized a form of rhetoric and actions that are directly tied to violations of democratic norms and the incitement of violence.

The incidents that took place during the January 6, 2021, insurrection in Washington D.C. are a stark reminder of the dangers of allowing such toxic ideologies to take root in a democracy. The storming of the Capitol and the subsequent storming of the presidential transition process were not mere protests but a clear violation of democratic principles. These events have since been compared to the rise of authoritarian figures in various nations, including Brazil. The parallels are unsettling, and the potential for similar occurrences in Brazil, if Bolsonaro loses, cannot be ignored.

Understanding the Current Climate in Brazil

With Bolsonaro's approval ratings at a historically low point, it becomes clear that the Brazilian electorate is ready for change. The former president is facing massive losses in both the current and upcoming elections. His handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his slow and uncoordinated approach to vaccinations have further eroded public trust. These failures have not gone unnoticed by the Brazilian populace, and they are embracing the return of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the former president of the Workers' Party, as the likely victor. This newfound support for Lula is a significant shift from the current political landscape.

Demographic Trends and Nostalgia for the Military Dictatorship

Another concerning factor is the growing support for old guard conservatives who are nostalgic for the military dictatorship of the past. The Brazilian military dictatorship, which lasted from 1964 to 1985, is a dark period in the country's history marked by human rights abuses and political repression. The nostalgia for this era among certain segments of the population is deeply troubling and presents a significant threat to democracy. The idea of a military coup to cling to power by an individual like Bolsonaro is not only terrifying but also violates the very principles of democracy).

The Potential for a Military Coup

Bolsonaro's ties to the military and his significant loyal following within the army make a military coup a realistic possibility. The retired military officer's support base within the armed forces, combined with a narrative of protecting Brazil from a leftist threat, could be a recipe for disaster. The fear is that Bolsonaro, sensing the inevitable loss in the election, might try to hijack the democratic process to remain in power.

Conclusion: The Need for Democratic Vigilance

The parallels between the Trump era and the potential for a similar insurrection in Brazil are alarming. If Bolsonaro loses the election, the window of opportunity for stability in Brazil hinges on the collective vigilance of its citizens and the commitment of its institutions to uphold democratic principles. It is crucial for Brazil to learn from the US experience and ensure that such authoritarian impulses are not allowed to flourish. The future of democracy in Brazil is at stake, and it requires the active participation and solidarity of the entire nation to safeguard it.

Ultimately, the challenges facing Brazil go beyond a simple election. They are rooted in deep-seated issues of democracy, human rights, and the legacy of past authoritarian regimes. As the world watches and waits, the lessons from the US experience serve as a stark reminder of the importance of vigilance and the enduring value of democratic institutions.