Will SB9 and SB10 Cause Demolitions of Single-Family Neighborhoods in Los Angeles and Southern California?

When discussions arise about bills such as SB9 and SB10, many people wonder if all single-family neighborhoods in Los Angeles, Southern California, and the entire state of California will be demolished. While this is a highly exaggerated scenario, there are several factors to consider that shed light on why such an outcome is highly improbable.

Why SB9 and SB10 Are Not Likely to Lead to Large-Scale Demolitions

As a former city planner, I can confidently state that the only way to demolish thousands of single-family homes in various neighborhoods would be through an imminent domain action or homeowners cashing out at market peak and moving elsewhere. However, this is not a feasible or likely scenario. For instance, acquiring the land of 1,000 homes through eminent domain would cost an agency or government a significant amount, potentially running into billions of dollars at the current home prices.

Why No Large-Scale Demolitions Are Expected

The key reason why mass demolitions of single-family homes are unlikely is that no single developer owns all the land in existing neighborhoods. Southern California, including Los Angeles, comprises numerous individually owned parcels with houses on them, rather than densely populated areas like Manhattan, New York. The sprawling nature of Southern California means there is a greater availability of land, which reduces pressure for high-density housing development.

The real estate market in Southern California is dominated by single-family homes. In my experience, builders and developers make the most money by selling single-family homes. High-density housing has never been as popular in Southern California due to our automotive culture. Residents enjoy single-family residences detached from one another, with spacious lawns and private backyards. Therefore, the demand for single-family homes continues to outweigh that for high-density options.

Current and Future Trends in Residential Development

There are other factors at play when considering the impact of SB9 and SB10. Local and state governments often provide subsidies to developers for projects that serve public needs. These subsidies play a crucial role in the development of affordable housing units.

For instance, the high-density housing projects mentioned could be funded or supported in the following ways:

Government agencies may be carrying out or partially funding the projects to provide much-needed affordable housing units in Los Angeles. Privately funded projects may be supported through government programs such as special zoning, development incentives, or tax benefits to make such construction financially beneficial for developers. Builders may be working on high-density projects to gain approval for more extensive, less-dense developments elsewhere or as part of commercial retail plans.

While these observations are based on my experience and knowledge up until my retirement, the current public and private sector trends suggest that these projects are intended to address specific needs in the community rather than to destroy existing neighborhoods.

It is important for residents, regardless of whether they are renters or homeowners, to stay informed about these developments. If you have any questions or guesses about specific projects, feel free to leave a comment, and I will do my best to address them.